“Space is for questing and wondering, for exploring unanswered questions about the universe and ourselves,” astronomer Carl Sagan wrote in his book Pale Blue Dot. His words resonate today, reflecting on the profound impact of space exploration over the past five decades. Since NASA’s historic moon landing in 1969, space-based technologies have not only propelled economic growth, but have also revolutionized global communication, narrowed the digital divide, monitored climate change, and delivered countless other benefits to humanity. The potential space offers combined with recent declining costs has increased interest and accessibility. As space exploration continues to provide answers to the universe’s mysteries, opening new frontiers and providing innovative solutions, space sustainability must be a top priority. If not, the future of space exploration could be at risk.
The Uncertainty of the Future of Space Exploration
At the end of June 2023, there were 11,330 individual satellites orbiting Earth, according to the Index of Objects Launched into Outer Space, maintained by the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA). By the end of 2023, 2,664 objects were launched into space around the globe, setting a record for most ever in a year.
Despite the excitement and energy around space exploration, this unprecedented growth has ushered in a concerning and uncertain future. Even with decades of progress since the early days of the space age, standards for operations and communications for commercial and government operators have lagged, usually focused solely on the geosynchronous orbit (GEO). The result is the “wild west situation” of today, characterized by unchecked licensing of massive satellite constellations, which pose significant risks for collision and debris accumulation.
Earlier this year, an uncontrolled European satellite fell to Earth after almost 30 years of orbit. Dr James Blake, from the Centre for Space Domain Awareness at the University of Warwick, said, “There are now thousands of active and defunct satellites orbiting the Earth and ERS-2 is the latest to undertake the return leg of its journey as it re-enters the Earth’s atmosphere.”
Urgent Call for a Coherent and Responsible Framework
While innovation and reinvigoration in space exploration are positive for the orbital ecosystem and society at large, the lack of a coherent development framework is concerning. The limited global regulations controlling space activities and the absence of global controls on the number of satellites launched into orbit are putting the future of space exploration in danger. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres acknowledged the issue in a May 2023 policy brief, stating, “Over the past decade we have witnessed a fundamental change in the actors, ambitions, and opportunities in outer space, and a new era of space exploration has come rapidly upon the multilateral system. It is our shared responsibility to ensure that existing international space law is fully implemented and that effective governance is in place to propel innovation and mitigate risks.”
There are currently over 23,000 pieces of debris larger than a softball circling the Earth at speeds up to 17,500 mph and the smaller particles in low Earth orbit (LEO) according to NASA. In March 2023 NASA reported there may be close to 170 million pieces of debris in orbit. As more unregulated and unchecked objects are launched, the risks grow exponentially. Although ERS-2 did not cause any damage when it fell back to Earth, the potential exists for an orbiting object to cause significant damage. In 2021, an unidentified object smashed into the International Space Station, causing damage to the lab’s robotic arm called Canadarm2.
Developing and deploying responsible technology in space now will prevent the issue from becoming an afterthought and a problem that needs to be solved later. One of the major concerns for scientists is something known as Kessler syndrome. This idea was first theorized in 1978 by former NASA scientist Donald Kessler and co-author Burton Cour-Palais in a study titled “Collision Frequency of Artificial Satellites: The Creation of Debris Belt.” They explained, “Satellite collisions would produce orbiting fragments, each of which would increase the probability of further collisions, leading to the growth of a belt of debris around the Earth. The debris flux in such an Earth-orbiting belt could exceed the natural meteoroid flux, affecting future spacecraft designs.” Making sustainability a precondition will ensure that space exploration will continue for a long time to come.
Challenges to Change
Navigating the regulatory landscape of space activities presents a challenge as regulators grapple with the surge in demand. This surge strains the existing International Telecommunications Union (ITU) framework. The current framework operates on a “first come, first served” basis, where a single filing can add several thousand space stations to the docket. Advocates for fair access and the prevention of spectrum hoarding find themselves facing a pressing dilemma with this current queuing process and the potential chaos a single application could cause in compromising competition. This is particularly concerning for LEO constellations, where efficiency in spectrum users is lower, with satellites being active less than 15 percent of the time.
These market dynamics, coupled with a scarcity of technological solutions capable of assessing and mitigating interference across constellations add to the growing unease. The inability to address these challenges not only threatens equitable access to space but also jeopardizes the effective operation of satellite systems critical for various applications, from communication to Earth observation.
Pioneering a Sustainable Future in Space Exploration
Addressing the current challenges now can help charter the course for sustainable space exploration. Establishing a robust framework must center around three pillars: Measure, Adapt, and Assess and Correct.
Measure: The first step in fostering responsible space stewardship is equipping operators and regulators with real-time data about space objects, satellites, and debris. This information serves as the foundation for effective orbit and spectrum management, enabling informed decision-making and proactive risk mitigation strategies.
Adapt: With the shortcomings addressed in existing licensing rules, the current GEO queuing mechanism must adapt. In addition, applications must include a roadmap showing incremental additions and an end-of-life plan to deorbit the satellites. Adapting this regulatory framework to reflect the dynamic nature of space operations helps safeguard the integrity of orbital environments.
Assess and Correct: Sustainability tools, collision avoidance mechanisms, and in-orbit servicing capabilities are all components of a proactive approach to space sustainability. These technologies play a crucial role in identifying and mitigating potential risks and pave the way for a more sustainable and resilient space environment.
Forging a Path Towards Responsible Space Exploration
Standing at the cusp of a pivotal moment in the space industry, industry leaders must unite in a shared commitment to responsible and sustainable practices. While some entities have already emerged as trailblazers in this endeavor, the establishment of robust frameworks for collaboration and information sharing is paramount.
Efforts to promote sustainability and safety in space and reduce space debris have led to initiatives such as the Space Data Association (SDA), a collaborative platform dedicated to sharing operational data and best practices. SDA, which is composed of the world’s major satellite communications companies, highlights the industry’s recognition of the importance of collective action in safeguarding the orbital environment.
Other initiatives are driving efficiencies and fostering innovation, reshaping the commercial landscape. Significant strides have been made in the development of the in-orbit servicing ecosystem, exemplified by historic achievements such as recent successful dockings of commercial aircraft for mission extension services. Each docking has been able to extend an otherwise high-performing satellite with low fuel by five years. By leveraging robotics technology and partnering with specialized organizations, efforts are underway to advance in-space servicing and repair capabilities, thereby enhancing the sustainability of space activity.
Looking ahead, a call for leadership and collaboration reverberates throughout the industry. The cooperation of everyone is required to establish standards, promote interoperability, and foster scalability. Engaging with regulatory bodies and international organizations, including the ITU, the UN, NASA, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC), the International Organization for Standardization (ISO), and the Consortium for Execution of Rendezvous and Servicing Operations (CONFERS), is essential in charting a course toward a sustainable future in space.
The urgency of the situation demands immediate and decisive action, as space debris, orbital congestion, and sustainability concerns grow with each new launch. Through proactive collaboration and a shared commitment to innovation, the space industry can ensure space exploration continues for the benefit of humanity. As Carl Sagan said, “Space is for questing and wondering” and by taking the right measures, space exploration can continue to help society answer questions and introduce new ideas in the future.
